WHERE DO GOLD PRICES GO FROM HERE?
December 14, 2016
My phone rings and my customer asks, "Where is gold going from here?" I always respond the same, "I don't know, my crystal ball fell off my desk." I do believe it is the time to be a contrarian and buy gold while hands are discarding their holdings in metals but I have felt that way for a couple of years now and the price has continued lower albeit a plus for buyers. Why anyone would risk so much for so little in this new abnormal world is perplexing to say the least.
What I do know is that we are experiencing the usual delays of national minted products as they attempt to get rid of 2016 dated materials and stock 2017 products. Spot has once again dipped this year, as it did last year, adding to the pinch but sales are not fantastic and I suspect someone or some entity (banks or governments) are buying up large quantities. The private sector seems to be dis-hoarding as they exuberantly dip their feet back into the market, euphoric over the recent election results and ecstatic about the change in leadership and direction. Equity markets are reflecting just that and this rally may continue for 6 months before reality hits and the realization that it is impossible to right a careening train.
Gold needs to hold steady at $1160 however a dip to $1130 will impact how low we might go. If we can't get above $1330 by March we are in big trouble. Silver continues to hold at $17 with a ratio change from 83:1 over this past year to 68:1, some $15. One rate hike and another one and done for the first quarter next year is expected. The U.S. dollar has reached $102 and treasury yields remain strong ALL bad news for metals. My question is how do treasury yields go up when Saudi Arabia and China sold some $375 B in bonds last year alone, and their level of selling treasuries have increased year after year? I'd advise stacking more metals at this price for your Christmas present to yourself!
Spot prices accurate as of
Fri Jul 31 20:58:01 PST